Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Cardinals SEA @ STL

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

13-15  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Apr 26 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

14-12  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jose Ferrer
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Ferrer

#45 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ryne Stanek
STARTING PITCHER

Ryne Stanek

#55 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Ferrer None-None 1.93 -- 1.0 --
Ryne Stanek None-None 7.71 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
1.93 Ldr ERA 7.71
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
MARINERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
SEATTLE
4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 SEA @ STL 3 - 2
Apr 25, 2026 SEA @ STL 11 - 9
Apr 24, 2026 SEA @ STL 3 - 2
Sep 10, 2025 STL @ SEA 2 - 4
Sep 9, 2025 STL @ SEA 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.379 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.693 ▲
OPS
.691
182 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +19.9% more
Seattle: 11.8 vs St. Louis: 9.5
Total Bases (L5) +11.6% more
Seattle: 19.0 vs St. Louis: 16.8
Home Runs (Season) +8.2% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Walks (L5) +70.5% more
St. Louis: 3.9 vs Seattle: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 5.0 3
STL Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 11.8 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 1.8 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 6.9 12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 16.8 / 19.0 14.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.3 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SEA
STL
SEA
ML
53% 85-74
50% 81-81
52% 84-77
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 89-70
60% 98-64
53% 85-76
59% 95-67
TTL
46% 68-81-10
56% 85-67-10
50% 76-75-10
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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