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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

12-15  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Apr 26 • 1:40 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

15-11  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Kody Funderburk
STARTING PITCHER

Kody Funderburk

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kody Funderburk None-None 1.74 -- 1.1 --
Bryan Baker None-None 3.48 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.74 Ldr ERA 3.48
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
0%
📊
RAYS
100%
TWINS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Minnesota)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

69.1%

Rays Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

18.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
MINNESOTA
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 MIN @ TB 2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026 MIN @ TB 1 - 6
Apr 24, 2026 MIN @ TB 2 - 6
Apr 5, 2026 TB @ MIN 4 - 1
Apr 4, 2026 TB @ MIN 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
OPS
▲ .728
187 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +15.4% more
Minnesota: 3.3 vs Tampa Bay: 2.8
Home Runs (Season) +9.6% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Errors (L5) +78.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.1 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Home Runs (L5) +59.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.6 vs Minnesota: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 5.0 2
TB Score 3.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.9 / 7.6 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 7.1 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 11.7 14.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.3 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIN
TB
MIN
ML
58% 95-68
52% 84-78
58% 95-68
50% 80-81
ATS
60% 97-66
59% 95-67
55% 90-73
59% 95-66
TTL
47% 73-81-9
51% 78-75-9
51% 78-75-10
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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