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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

12-16  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Apr 26 • 7:20 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

10-17  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Bachman None-None 3.68 -- 1.0 --
Lucas Erceg None-None 4.76 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.68 Ldr ERA 4.76
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
100%
📊
ROYALS
0%
ANGELS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
LOS ANGELES
7
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 KC @ LAA 3 - 0
Aug 15, 2026 KC @ LAA 0 - 1
Aug 14, 2026 KC @ LAA 7 - 6
Apr 26, 2026 LAA @ KC 9 - 11
Apr 25, 2026 LAA @ KC 1 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.679
OPS
▲ .718
154
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +37.6% more
Kansas City: 16.3 vs Los Angeles: 11.8
Hits (L5) +36.5% more
Kansas City: 10.7 vs Los Angeles: 7.8
Strikeouts (L5) +32.3% more
Kansas City: 10.2 vs Los Angeles: 7.7
Home Runs (L5) +24.0% more
Kansas City: 1.0 vs Los Angeles: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 6.0 9
KC Score 7.0 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.7 / 7.8 12.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.8 4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 7.7 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.3 / 11.8 30.0 / 24.0
Walks 3.7 / 5.4 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
LAA
KC
LAA
ML
55% 89-72
59% 96-66
56% 90-70
55% 89-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-65
58% 93-67
51% 82-80
TTL
58% 90-64-7
53% 83-74-5
54% 83-70-7
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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