MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
13-14 | Road
3
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
12-15 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Landen Roupp
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Landen Roupp | None-None | 2.55 | -- | 7.2 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.00
ERA
Ldr 2.55
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
0%
GIANTS
100%
MARLINS
--
GIANTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
SF By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SF By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Giants
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
SF @ MIA
1 - 2
Jun 20, 2026
SF @ MIA
3 - 6
Jun 19, 2026
SF @ MIA
3 - 4
Apr 26, 2026
MIA @ SF
3 - 6
Apr 25, 2026
MIA @ SF
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.727
▲
OPS
.706
168
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.2% more
Miami: 8.1
vs
San Francisco: 6.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.3% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+2.1%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
San Francisco: 70.6%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.0%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
San Francisco: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.0
3
SF Score
3.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 9.6
8.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 8.1
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 13.4
14.0 / 5.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.4
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
MIA
SF
MIA
ML
49%
79-81
48%
78-84
53%
85-75
55%
88-72
ATS
62%
100-60
56%
91-71
52%
83-77
54%
86-74
TTL
55%
82-68-10
56%
88-69-5
46%
68-81-11
53%
82-73-5
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