PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
16-11 | Road
0
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
13-13 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Abner Uribe
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 4.13 | -- | 3.2 | 4 |
| Abner Uribe | None-None | 3.97 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.13
ERA
Ldr 3.97
--
WHIP
--
3.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
BREWERS
0%
PIRATES
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
7
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734
OPS
▲
.743
186
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+48.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.1%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Pittsburgh: 33.0%
OPS (Season)
+0.9%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
6.0
0
MIL Score
7.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.2 / 8.4
7.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 9.5
18.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
8.0 / 11.2
10.0 / 3.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.1
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PIT
MIL
PIT
ML
62%
101-61
52%
82-77
52%
84-78
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
81-82
TTL
40%
62-92-8
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-77-8
50%
79-78-6
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