LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
53-29 | Road
96
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
52-30 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
LAKERS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
LAL By 1-7 points
13.7%
LAL By 8-14 points
4.8%
HOU By 1-7 points
25.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
96
LOS ANGELES
Houston
104
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
112
LOS ANGELES
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u206.0
Loss
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim
u206.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 1, 2026
LAL @ HOU
98 - 78
Apr 29, 2026
HOU @ LAL
99 - 93
Apr 26, 2026
LAL @ HOU
96 - 115
Apr 24, 2026
LAL @ HOU
112 - 108
Apr 21, 2026
HOU @ LAL
94 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+17.0% more
Houston: 47.6
vs
Los Angeles: 40.7
Turnovers (L5)
+17.2% more
Los Angeles: 17.9
vs
Houston: 14.8
Assists (L5)
+16.0% more
Los Angeles: 27.7
vs
Houston: 23.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+15.1%
Los Angeles: 44.0%
vs
Houston: 28.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAL Score
96.0
96
HOU Score
104.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.9 / 44.0
40.0 / 23.0
Assists
23.3 / 27.7
19.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.6 / 5.5
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 51.0
48.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 74.1
81.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
47.6 / 40.7
35.0 / 37.0
Steals
11.1 / 11.1
17.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 17.9
13.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
Advantage
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
Advantage
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAL
HOU
LAL
ML
61%
69-44
61%
68-43
59%
51-35
54%
49-42
ATS
62%
70-43
61%
67-43-1
59%
51-35
54%
49-42
TTL
51%
58-55
61%
66-43-2
100%
86-0
100%
91-0
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