SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Road
114
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
42-40 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
SPURS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)
SA By 1-7 points
26.2%
SA By 8-14 points
16.9%
POR By 1-7 points
24.3%
POR By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
115
SAN ANTONIO
Portland
114
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
San Antonio
110
SAN ANTONIO
Portland
115
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trail Blazers (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o217.0
Loss
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u217.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 28, 2026
POR @ SA
95 - 114
Apr 26, 2026
SA @ POR
114 - 93
Apr 24, 2026
SA @ POR
120 - 108
Apr 21, 2026
POR @ SA
106 - 103
Apr 19, 2026
POR @ SA
98 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+8.7% more
San Antonio: 14.3
vs
Portland: 13.1
Rebounding (L5)
+8.4% more
San Antonio: 47.2
vs
Portland: 43.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.5%
San Antonio: 39.7%
vs
Portland: 34.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
San Antonio: 78.5%
vs
Portland: 74.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
115.0
114
POR Score
114.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 39.7
32.0 / 42.0
Assists
23.4 / 25.4
14.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.1 / 6.1
5.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 47.1
40.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
74.3 / 78.5
83.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
43.3 / 47.2
39.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.2 / 7.7
6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 14.3
18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
SA
POR
SA
ML
53%
56-49
60%
111-73
55%
49-40
58%
61-44
ATS
62%
65-39-1
58%
107-76-1
55%
49-40
58%
61-44
TTL
56%
58-46-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
89-0
100%
105-0
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