SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
17-8 | Road
6
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
14-11 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jonathan Loaisiga
#43 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Jonathan Loaisiga | None-None | 3.55 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
3.55
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
PADRES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
SD By 1-2 runs
7.8%
SD By 3-4 runs
3.5%
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
7
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u16.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u16.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925
▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4050.0% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+32.0% more
Arizona: 1.3
vs
San Diego: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+25.4% more
Arizona: 17.5
vs
San Diego: 13.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.5% more
Arizona: 8.4
vs
San Diego: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.0
6
ARI Score
7.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.0
3.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.3 / 8.9
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 6.9
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
17.5 / 13.9
11.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.3
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SD
ARI
SD
ML
54%
87-74
51%
85-83
54%
86-74
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
91-77
56%
89-71
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
80-73-8
51%
82-80-6
49%
73-77-9
54%
86-74-6
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