PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
8-18 | Road
8
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
19-8 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Backhus
#19 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Backhus | None-None | 4.66 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 1.38 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.66
ERA
Ldr 1.38
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
BRAVES
100%
PHILLIES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
16.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
ATL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
9
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
7
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 16.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲
.757
3
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+33.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.6
vs
Atlanta: 0.2
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Atlanta: 43.3%
Strikeouts (L5)
+45.1% more
Atlanta: 8.3
vs
Philadelphia: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
9.0
8
ATL Score
7.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.2 / 8.3
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 5.7
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
16.6 / 14.0
13.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.9 / 4.1
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46%
77-90
59%
97-67
54%
90-78
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
96-71
65%
107-57
52%
87-81
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
57%
88-67-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-76-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…