NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

17-9  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Apr 25 • 7:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

10-17  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
AJ Blubaugh
STARTING PITCHER

AJ Blubaugh

#69 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Hill None-None 1.64 -- 1.0 1
AJ Blubaugh None-None 6.23 -- 1.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.64 Ldr ERA 6.23
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
100%
📊
ASTROS
0%
YANKEES --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Houston)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

10.6%

Astros Cover

89.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

NYY By 1-2 runs

5.4%

NYY By 3-4 runs

2.2%

HOU By 1-2 runs

13.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
1
NEW YORK
6
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -5.0
D
Sim Astros (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 HOU @ NYY 5 - 1
Aug 26, 2026 HOU @ NYY 3 - 9
Aug 25, 2026 HOU @ NYY 9 - 7
Apr 26, 2026 NYY @ HOU 4 - 7
Apr 25, 2026 NYY @ HOU 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Houston HOU
1
Games Played
▲ 2
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
1.041 ▲
OPS
.582
2
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +173.5% more
Houston: 5.5 vs New York: 2.0
Errors (L5) +47.0% more
Houston: 0.8 vs New York: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season) +66.7% more
New York: 9.0 vs Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season) +45.9%
New York: 1.0% vs Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 1.0 8
HOU Score 6.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 10.0 7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 2.3 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 8.4 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 18.7 14.0 / 22.0
Walks 5.5 / 2.0 10.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7