Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Cardinals SEA @ STL

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

12-15  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sat, Apr 25 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

14-11  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andres Munoz None-None 6.55 -- 1.0 1
Matt Svanson None-None 10.54 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.55 Ldr ERA 10.54
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
MARINERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

SEA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SEA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SEATTLE
4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
2
SEATTLE
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 SEA @ STL 3 - 2
Apr 25, 2026 SEA @ STL 11 - 9
Apr 24, 2026 SEA @ STL 3 - 2
Sep 10, 2025 STL @ SEA 2 - 4
Sep 9, 2025 STL @ SEA 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.379 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.693 ▲
OPS
.691
182 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +79.2% more
St. Louis: 4.3 vs Seattle: 2.4
Strikeouts (L5) +10.9% more
St. Louis: 7.6 vs Seattle: 6.9
Runs per Game (Season) +8.3% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Seattle: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season) +0.6%
St. Louis: 23.9% vs Seattle: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 3.0 11
STL Score 4.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 8.3 14.0 / 19.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.2 5.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 6.9 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 13.5 29.0 / 30.0
Walks 4.3 / 2.4 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SEA
STL
SEA
ML
53% 85-74
50% 81-81
52% 84-77
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 89-70
60% 98-64
53% 85-76
59% 95-67
TTL
46% 68-81-10
56% 85-67-10
50% 76-75-10
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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