Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Giants MIA @ SF

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

13-13  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Apr 25 • 4:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

11-15  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Keaton Winn

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Phillips None-None 1.59 -- 2.0 --
Keaton Winn None-None 2.53 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.59 Ldr ERA 2.53
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
100%
📊
GIANTS
0%
MARLINS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Francisco)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

40.1%

Giants Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

MIA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MIAMI
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
6
MIAMI
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Marlins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Marlins (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 SF @ MIA 1 - 2
Jun 20, 2026 SF @ MIA 3 - 6
Jun 19, 2026 SF @ MIA 3 - 4
Apr 26, 2026 MIA @ SF 3 - 6
Apr 25, 2026 MIA @ SF 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.727 ▲
OPS
.706
168
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +46.1% more
San Francisco: 3.8 vs Miami: 2.6
Home Runs (Season) +6.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Home Runs (L5) +36.0% more
Miami: 1.0 vs San Francisco: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +35.9% more
Miami: 17.0 vs San Francisco: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.0 2
SF Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 11.4 11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.0 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 8.7 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 17.0 25.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.8 / 2.6 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
MIA
SF
MIA
ML
49% 79-81
48% 78-84
53% 85-75
55% 88-72
ATS
62% 100-60
56% 91-71
52% 83-77
54% 86-74
TTL
55% 82-68-10
56% 88-69-5
46% 68-81-11
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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