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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

12-14  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Apr 25 • 4:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

14-11  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Taylor Rogers
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Rogers

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kevin Kelly
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Kelly

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Taylor Rogers None-None 7.27 -- -- --
Kevin Kelly None-None 4.38 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
7.27 ERA Ldr 4.38
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
📊
RAYS
0%
TWINS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

40.1%

Rays Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
MINNESOTA
6
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 MIN @ TB 2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026 MIN @ TB 1 - 6
Apr 24, 2026 MIN @ TB 2 - 6
Apr 5, 2026 TB @ MIN 4 - 1
Apr 4, 2026 TB @ MIN 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
OPS
▲ .728
187 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +25.3% more
Tampa Bay: 1.9 vs Minnesota: 1.5
Strikeouts (L5) +10.9% more
Tampa Bay: 8.4 vs Minnesota: 7.6
Batting Avg (Season) +1.3%
Tampa Bay: 25.8% vs Minnesota: 24.5%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.9%
Tampa Bay: 32.6% vs Minnesota: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 5.0 1
TB Score 6.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.4 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 8.9 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 7.6 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 15.0 15.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.5 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIN
TB
MIN
ML
58% 95-68
52% 84-78
58% 95-68
50% 80-81
ATS
60% 97-66
59% 95-67
55% 90-73
59% 95-66
TTL
47% 73-81-9
51% 78-75-9
51% 78-75-10
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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