Home / NBA Projections NBA / Knicks @ Hawks NY @ ATL

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

53-29  |  Road

114
FINAL
Sat, Apr 25 • 6:00 PM ET
State Farm Arena
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

46-36  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
KNICKS
0%
📊
HAWKS
100%
KNICKS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New York)
KnicksNY (-3.5) 0 HawksATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knicks Cover

61.8%

Hawks Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NY -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

NY By 1-7 points

27.2%

NY By 8-14 points

20.1%

ATL By 1-7 points

21.6%

ATL By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
111
NEW YORK
108
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
108
NEW YORK
112
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knicks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knicks (+2) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Hawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o215.5 Loss
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim u215.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 30, 2026 NY @ ATL 140 - 89
Apr 28, 2026 ATL @ NY 97 - 126
Apr 25, 2026 NY @ ATL 114 - 98
Apr 23, 2026 NY @ ATL 108 - 109
Apr 20, 2026 ATL @ NY 107 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.5%
New York: 78.3% vs Atlanta: 70.7%
Blocks (L5) +47.4% more
Atlanta: 5.9 vs New York: 4.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Atlanta: 36.7% vs New York: 33.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NY Score 111.0 114
ATL Score 108.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 33.8 24.0 / 45.0
Assists 23.2 / 22.3 20.0 / 23.0
Blocks 5.9 / 4.0 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 46.1 41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 78.3 80.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 42.4 / 44.2 38.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.3 / 8.3 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 14.2 19.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
ATL
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
ATL
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NY
ATL
NY
ML
50% 52-52
61% 114-72
55% 48-40
56% 57-45
ATS
53% 55-48-1
67% 124-62
55% 48-40
56% 57-45
TTL
53% 55-48-1
72% 133-53
100% 88-0
100% 102-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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