MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
12-13 | Road
2
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
13-11 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley | None-None | 2.91 | -- | 6.1 | 3 |
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 3.86 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.91 Ldr
ERA
3.86
--
WHIP
--
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
RAYS
0%
TWINS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 26, 2026
MIN @ TB
2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026
MIN @ TB
1 - 6
Apr 24, 2026
MIN @ TB
2 - 6
Apr 5, 2026
TB @ MIN
4 - 1
Apr 4, 2026
TB @ MIN
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
OPS
▲
.728
187
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.3%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Minnesota: 24.5%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.9%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
Minnesota: 31.7%
OPS (Season)
+0.8%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Errors (L5)
+49.0% more
Minnesota: 0.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.0
2
TB Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 8.9
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.3
4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 8.9
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 14.1
20.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.7
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIN
TB
MIN
ML
58%
95-68
52%
84-78
58%
95-68
50%
80-81
ATS
60%
97-66
59%
95-67
55%
90-73
59%
95-66
TTL
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-75-9
51%
78-75-10
53%
80-72-9
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