PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
8-17 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
18-8 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Mayza
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Mayza | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Grant Holmes | None-None | 3.62 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 3.62
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
100%
BRAVES
0%
PHILLIES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
PHI By 1-2 runs
10.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
5.4%
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.4%
ATL By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲
.757
3
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+42.9% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Hits (L5)
+40.0% more
Atlanta: 10.4
vs
Philadelphia: 7.4
Total Bases (L5)
+37.8% more
Atlanta: 18.0
vs
Philadelphia: 13.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+31.4% more
Atlanta: 10.0
vs
Philadelphia: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.0
3
ATL Score
6.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.4 / 7.4
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.5
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 7.6
5.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
18.0 / 13.0
14.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.9 / 4.6
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46%
77-90
59%
97-67
54%
90-78
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
96-71
65%
107-57
52%
87-81
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
57%
88-67-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-76-9
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