NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
16-9 | Road
12
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
10-16 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Yarbrough
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Yarbrough | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 12.96 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50 Ldr
ERA
12.96
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
0%
ASTROS
100%
YANKEES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.4%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
10.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Houston
2
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
HOU @ NYY
5 - 1
Aug 26, 2026
HOU @ NYY
3 - 9
Aug 25, 2026
HOU @ NYY
9 - 7
Apr 26, 2026
NYY @ HOU
4 - 7
Apr 25, 2026
NYY @ HOU
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Houston
HOU
1
Games Played
▲
2
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
1.041
▲
OPS
.582
2
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+66.7% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+45.9%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+24.0%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Houston: 35.4%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+21.8%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.0
12
HOU Score
2.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 8.4
11.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.5
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 7.1
4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 14.6
18.0 / 27.0
Walks
5.2 / 2.0
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
NYY
HOU
NYY
ML
50%
81-82
47%
76-85
47%
77-87
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
91-72
59%
95-66
55%
90-74
53%
86-76
TTL
45%
70-84-9
53%
81-73-7
45%
69-86-9
53%
82-72-7
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