PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
14-11 | Road
6
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
13-11 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Montgomery
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Drohan
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Montgomery | None-None | 4.35 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Shane Drohan | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 4.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.35 Ldr
ERA
5.40
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
0%
BREWERS
100%
PIRATES
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734
OPS
▲
.743
186
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+86.3% more
Pittsburgh: 1.0
vs
Milwaukee: 0.1
Home Runs (Season)
+17.2% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Hits (L5)
+17.6% more
Milwaukee: 8.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.6
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.0
6
MIL Score
3.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 7.6
1.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.1 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 8.6
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 11.5
1.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.5
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PIT
MIL
PIT
ML
62%
101-61
52%
82-77
52%
84-78
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
81-82
TTL
40%
62-92-8
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-77-8
50%
79-78-6
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