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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

12-14  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Apr 24 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

8-17  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Vaughn Grissom
STARTING PITCHER

Vaughn Grissom

#5 | First Base
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Vaughn Grissom None-None -- -- -- --
Lucas Erceg None-None 5.23 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.23
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
100%
📊
ROYALS
0%
ANGELS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Kansas City)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

40.1%

Royals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
LOS ANGELES
6
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 KC @ LAA 3 - 0
Aug 15, 2026 KC @ LAA 0 - 1
Aug 14, 2026 KC @ LAA 7 - 6
Apr 26, 2026 LAA @ KC 9 - 11
Apr 25, 2026 LAA @ KC 1 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.679
OPS
▲ .718
154
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +100.4% more
Kansas City: 5.3 vs Los Angeles: 2.6
Home Runs (L5) +55.0% more
Kansas City: 1.6 vs Los Angeles: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +42.4% more
Kansas City: 16.9 vs Los Angeles: 11.9
Hits (L5) +25.2% more
Kansas City: 9.6 vs Los Angeles: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 5.0 3
KC Score 6.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 7.6 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 7.8 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 16.9 / 11.9 11.0 / 10.0
Walks 5.3 / 2.6 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
LAA
KC
LAA
ML
55% 89-72
59% 96-66
56% 90-70
55% 89-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-65
58% 93-67
51% 82-80
TTL
58% 90-64-7
53% 83-74-5
54% 83-70-7
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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