OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
64-18 | Road
121
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
45-37 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
SUNS
100%
THUNDER
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
21.6%
OKC By 8-14 points
27.4%
PHX By 1-7 points
9.3%
PHX By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
117
OKLAHOMA CITY
Phoenix
106
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o213.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim
u213.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 27, 2026
OKC @ PHX
131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026
OKC @ PHX
121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026
PHX @ OKC
107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026
PHX @ OKC
84 - 119
Apr 12, 2026
PHX @ OKC
135 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.5% more
Oklahoma City: 5.7
vs
Phoenix: 3.1
Steals (L5)
+36.8% more
Oklahoma City: 12.0
vs
Phoenix: 7.6
Assists (L5)
+23.0% more
Oklahoma City: 27.3
vs
Phoenix: 21.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Oklahoma City: 46.9%
vs
Phoenix: 44.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
117.0
121
PHX Score
106.0
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 35.7
32.0 / 32.0
Assists
21.0 / 27.3
25.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.1 / 5.7
2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 46.9
44.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
78.4 / 75.5
87.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 44.2
39.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.6 / 12.0
2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
18.2 / 10.5
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
OKC
PHX
OKC
ML
57%
60-45
70%
80-34
51%
45-43
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
59-43-3
73%
83-30-1
51%
45-43
48%
46-49
TTL
59%
61-42-2
67%
76-38
100%
88-0
100%
95-0
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