DETROIT
PISTONSDET
60-22 | Road
105
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
45-37 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
MAGIC
0%
PISTONS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
DET By 1-7 points
21.6%
DET By 8-14 points
10.7%
ORL By 1-7 points
27.2%
ORL By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
108
DETROIT
Orlando
111
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Detroit
105
DETROIT
Orlando
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Magic (+2)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o215.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim
u215.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
ORL @ DET
94 - 116
May 1, 2026
DET @ ORL
93 - 79
Apr 29, 2026
ORL @ DET
109 - 116
Apr 27, 2026
DET @ ORL
88 - 94
Apr 25, 2026
DET @ ORL
105 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+8.7% more
Orlando: 10.8
vs
Detroit: 10.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
Orlando: 74.6%
vs
Detroit: 71.2%
Blocks (L5)
+27.0% more
Detroit: 8.2
vs
Orlando: 6.0
Assists (L5)
+13.1% more
Detroit: 26.3
vs
Orlando: 22.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
108.0
105
ORL Score
111.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.4 / 32.8
45.0 / 34.0
Assists
22.8 / 26.3
22.0 / 24.0
Blocks
6.0 / 8.2
8.0 / 12.0
Field Goal %
42.6 / 47.9
40.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
74.6 / 71.2
79.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
44.5 / 48.1
48.0 / 42.0
Steals
10.8 / 10.0
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 18.0
14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
DET
ORL
DET
ML
61%
65-42
55%
64-53
56%
51-40
49%
47-49
ATS
64%
68-38-1
53%
60-54-3
56%
51-40
49%
47-49
TTL
57%
61-46
60%
70-46-1
100%
91-0
100%
96-0
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