MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
12-12 | Road
8
NEW YORK
METSNYM
8-16 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Morris
#78 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Morris | None-None | 7.71 | -- | 2.2 | 4 |
| Devin Williams | None-None | 10.29 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.71 Ldr
ERA
10.29
--
WHIP
--
2.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
METS
0%
TWINS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
MIN @ NYM
8 - 10
Apr 22, 2026
MIN @ NYM
2 - 3
Apr 21, 2026
MIN @ NYM
5 - 3
Apr 16, 2025
NYM @ MIN
3 - 4
Apr 15, 2025
NYM @ MIN
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.720
▲
OPS
.705
187
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+9.1% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Minnesota: 187.0
Errors (L5)
+76.0% more
Minnesota: 0.9
vs
New York: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+34.0% more
Minnesota: 0.9
vs
New York: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+23.3% more
Minnesota: 4.0
vs
New York: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.0
8
NYM Score
4.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 7.3
10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.9
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 8.9
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
9.9 / 11.6
20.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.0
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIN
NYM
MIN
ML
50%
79-80
52%
84-78
48%
76-83
50%
80-81
ATS
58%
93-66
59%
95-67
49%
78-81
59%
95-66
TTL
55%
80-66-13
51%
78-75-9
51%
74-72-13
53%
80-72-9
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