NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
15-9 | Road
4
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
9-15 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 4.66 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.38 Ldr
ERA
4.66
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
100%
RED SOX
0%
YANKEES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
NYY By 1-2 runs
10.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
5.4%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.4%
BOS By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Boston
6
BOSTON
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Boston
7
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Boston
BOS
1
Games Played
▲
2
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
1.041
▲
OPS
.409
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+24.0% more
Boston: 3.1
vs
New York: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+91.6% more
New York: 1.8
vs
Boston: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.9% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+63.2%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
3.0
4
BOS Score
6.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.3 / 7.6
4.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 1.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.1
17.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
8.7 / 14.9
8.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.5
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYY
BOS
NYY
ML
50%
80-80
47%
76-85
47%
76-87
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
93-67
59%
95-66
48%
79-84
53%
86-76
TTL
46%
72-83-5
53%
81-73-7
47%
74-83-6
53%
82-72-7
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