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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

14-10  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Apr 23 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

12-12  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Yohan Ramirez
STARTING PITCHER

Yohan Ramirez

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Peyton Gray
STARTING PITCHER

Peyton Gray

#75 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yohan Ramirez None-None 2.16 -- 1.0 1
Peyton Gray None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.16 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
0%
📊
RANGERS
100%
PIRATES --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Pittsburgh)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

77.3%

Rangers Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-2 runs

18.4%

PIT By 3-4 runs

19.6%

TEX By 1-2 runs

10.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
7
PITTSBURGH
4
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 23, 2026 PIT @ TEX 1 - 6
Apr 22, 2026 PIT @ TEX 8 - 4
Apr 21, 2026 PIT @ TEX 1 - 5
Jun 22, 2025 TEX @ PIT 3 - 8
Jun 21, 2025 TEX @ PIT 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.734 ▲
OPS
.713
186 ▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +35.9% more
Pittsburgh: 1.0 vs Texas: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season) +12.3% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Texas: 4.2
Strikeouts (L5) +11.1% more
Pittsburgh: 9.4 vs Texas: 8.3
Hits (L5) +10.9% more
Pittsburgh: 8.9 vs Texas: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 7.0 1
TEX Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 8.9 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 9.4 13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 13.3 16.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.8 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
PIT
TEX
PIT
ML
53% 86-76
52% 82-77
57% 91-70
52% 85-78
ATS
57% 92-70
54% 86-73
61% 98-63
50% 81-82
TTL
53% 78-70-14
47% 72-81-6
55% 81-66-14
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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