SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Road
120
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
42-40 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
SPURS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
24.3%
SA By 8-14 points
26.8%
POR By 1-7 points
12.2%
POR By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
108
SAN ANTONIO
Portland
99
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
San Antonio
108
SAN ANTONIO
Portland
115
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u219.5
Loss
Proj Total: 207.0
D
Sim
u219.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 28, 2026
POR @ SA
95 - 114
Apr 26, 2026
SA @ POR
114 - 93
Apr 24, 2026
SA @ POR
120 - 108
Apr 21, 2026
POR @ SA
106 - 103
Apr 19, 2026
POR @ SA
98 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
San Antonio: 47.1%
vs
Portland: 44.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
San Antonio: 35.6%
vs
Portland: 32.9%
Blocks (L5)
+38.3% more
Portland: 7.1
vs
San Antonio: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
108.0
120
POR Score
99.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 35.6
37.0 / 48.0
Assists
24.6 / 24.6
21.0 / 27.0
Blocks
7.1 / 5.2
4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 47.1
41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
76.9 / 78.3
69.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
42.4 / 45.8
45.0 / 50.0
Steals
8.8 / 8.6
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 14.0
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
SA
POR
SA
ML
53%
56-49
60%
111-73
55%
49-40
58%
61-44
ATS
62%
65-39-1
58%
107-76-1
55%
49-40
58%
61-44
TTL
56%
58-46-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
89-0
100%
105-0
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