PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
13-10 | Road
8
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
12-11 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gregory Soto
#31 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cole Winn
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Soto | None-None | 2.13 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Cole Winn | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.13 Ldr
ERA
4.91
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
RANGERS
0%
PIRATES
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Texas
6
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
PIT @ TEX
1 - 6
Apr 22, 2026
PIT @ TEX
8 - 4
Apr 21, 2026
PIT @ TEX
1 - 5
Jun 22, 2025
TEX @ PIT
3 - 8
Jun 21, 2025
TEX @ PIT
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.734
▲
OPS
.713
186
▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Texas: 1.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Home Runs (L5)
+53.3% more
Pittsburgh: 1.1
vs
Texas: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+12.3% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Texas: 4.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.7% more
Pittsburgh: 9.0
vs
Texas: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
5.0
8
TEX Score
6.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 8.9
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 9.0
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 13.5
12.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.2
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
PIT
TEX
PIT
ML
53%
86-76
52%
82-77
57%
91-70
52%
85-78
ATS
57%
92-70
54%
86-73
61%
98-63
50%
81-82
TTL
53%
78-70-14
47%
72-81-6
55%
81-66-14
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
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