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ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

14-9  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Apr 22 • 12:10 PM ET
loanDepot park
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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

11-13  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Pete Fairbanks
STARTING PITCHER

Pete Fairbanks

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 11.08 -- 1.0 1
Pete Fairbanks None-None 7.27 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
11.08 ERA Ldr 7.27
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
MARLINS
0%
CARDINALS --
MARLINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Marlins Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ST. LOUIS
4
MIAMI
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marlins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Marlins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 MIA @ STL 1 - 2
Jun 27, 2026 MIA @ STL 5 - 1
Jun 26, 2026 MIA @ STL 4 - 0
Apr 22, 2026 STL @ MIA 1 - 4
Apr 21, 2026 STL @ MIA 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.691
OPS
▲ .727
167
Home Runs
▲ 168
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +46.2% more
Miami: 10.5 vs St. Louis: 7.2
OPS (Season) +3.6%
Miami: 72.7% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.2%
Miami: 40.0% vs St. Louis: 37.8%
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.3%
Miami: 32.6% vs St. Louis: 31.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.0 1
MIA Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.7 / 8.3 12.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.5 / 7.2 9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 13.3 12.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.3 / 4.4 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
STL
MIA
STL
ML
48% 78-84
53% 85-74
55% 88-72
52% 84-77
ATS
56% 91-71
56% 89-70
54% 86-74
53% 85-76
TTL
56% 88-69-5
46% 68-81-10
53% 82-73-5
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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