Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Guardians HOU @ CLE

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

9-16  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Apr 22 • 1:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

14-11  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Enyel De Los Santos
STARTING PITCHER

Enyel De Los Santos

#65 | Relief Pitcher
@
Erik Sabrowski
STARTING PITCHER

Erik Sabrowski

#62 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Enyel De Los Santos None-None 3.86 -- 1.1 1
Erik Sabrowski None-None 3.09 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.86 ERA Ldr 3.09
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
100%
📊
GUARDIANS
0%
ASTROS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cleveland)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

30.9%

Guardians Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

HOU By 1-2 runs

13.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4
HOUSTON
6
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
6
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Guardians (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 CLE @ HOU 1 - 2
Jun 20, 2026 CLE @ HOU 8 - 1
Jun 19, 2026 CLE @ HOU 3 - 9
Apr 22, 2026 HOU @ CLE 2 - 0
Apr 21, 2026 HOU @ CLE 5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Cleveland CLE
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.19
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .380
.582
OPS
▲ .696
4
Home Runs
▲ 162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +3950.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5) +61.0% more
Cleveland: 1.1 vs Houston: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season) +39.7% more
Cleveland: 4.2 vs Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season) +11.4%
Cleveland: 69.6% vs Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.0 2
CLE Score 6.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.5 / 9.2 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.4 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 15.4 5.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.2 / 5.8 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
HOU
CLE
HOU
ML
54% 87-75
50% 81-82
49% 80-83
47% 77-87
ATS
57% 93-69
56% 91-72
58% 95-68
55% 90-74
TTL
56% 89-71-2
45% 70-84-9
44% 70-90-2
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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