CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
16-8 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
12-11 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brock Burke
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Burke | None-None | 0.79 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 5.23 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.79 Ldr
ERA
5.23
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
0%
RAYS
100%
REDS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
18.4%
TB By 1-2 runs
13.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 22, 2026
CIN @ TB
1 - 6
Apr 21, 2026
CIN @ TB
12 - 6
Apr 20, 2026
CIN @ TB
6 - 1
Jul 27, 2025
TB @ CIN
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2025
TB @ CIN
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.699
OPS
▲
.728
213
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+64.9% more
Cincinnati: 2.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+30.1% more
Cincinnati: 16.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 11.8
Home Runs (Season)
+20.7% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Errors (L5)
+15.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.0
1
TB Score
3.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.4
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 2.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.2
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 16.9
12.0 / 6.0
Walks
5.2 / 5.6
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CIN
TB
CIN
ML
58%
95-68
55%
88-71
58%
95-68
49%
79-81
ATS
60%
97-66
54%
86-73
55%
90-73
50%
80-80
TTL
47%
73-81-9
53%
81-73-5
51%
78-75-10
54%
83-72-5
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