CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
9-14 | Road
7
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
13-10 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Newcomb
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Newcomb | None-None | 4.60 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 2.38 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.60
ERA
Ldr 2.38
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
0%
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
WHITE SOX
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
18.4%
CHW By 3-4 runs
19.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
10.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
CHW @ ARI
4 - 1
Apr 22, 2026
CHW @ ARI
7 - 11
Apr 21, 2026
CHW @ ARI
11 - 5
Jun 25, 2025
ARI @ CHW
3 - 7
Jun 24, 2025
ARI @ CHW
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Arizona
ARI
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826
▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+54.0% more
Chicago: 3.0
vs
Arizona: 1.4
Walks (L5)
+38.2% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Arizona: 3.7
Total Bases (L5)
+29.1% more
Chicago: 22.3
vs
Arizona: 15.8
Errors (L5)
+28.0% more
Chicago: 0.3
vs
Arizona: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
6.0
7
ARI Score
3.0
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 10.9
16.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 3.0
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 7.4
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 22.3
32.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.7 / 6.0
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CHW
ARI
CHW
ML
54%
87-74
49%
81-86
54%
86-74
56%
94-73
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
99-68
56%
89-71
56%
93-74
TTL
52%
80-73-8
58%
96-69-2
49%
73-77-9
51%
84-81-2
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