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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

12-11  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Apr 22 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

7-16  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Taylor Rogers
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Rogers

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Carson Benge
STARTING PITCHER

Carson Benge

#3 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Taylor Rogers None-None 4.15 -- 0.2 --
Carson Benge None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.15 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
📊
METS
0%
TWINS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

40.1%

Mets Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
MINNESOTA
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 23, 2026 MIN @ NYM 8 - 10
Apr 22, 2026 MIN @ NYM 2 - 3
Apr 21, 2026 MIN @ NYM 5 - 3
Apr 16, 2025 NYM @ MIN 3 - 4
Apr 15, 2025 NYM @ MIN 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.720 ▲
OPS
.705
187
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +9.1% more
New York: 204.0 vs Minnesota: 187.0
Errors (L5) +64.0% more
Minnesota: 0.9 vs New York: 0.3
Hits (L5) +18.2% more
Minnesota: 7.4 vs New York: 6.1
Total Bases (L5) +17.2% more
Minnesota: 11.4 vs New York: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 4.0 2
NYM Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.1 / 7.4 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 9.3 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 9.4 / 11.4 11.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.6 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIN
NYM
MIN
ML
50% 79-80
52% 84-78
48% 76-83
50% 80-81
ATS
58% 93-66
59% 95-67
49% 78-81
59% 95-66
TTL
55% 80-66-13
51% 78-75-9
51% 74-72-13
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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