HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
9-15 | Road
5
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
13-11 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan King | None-None | 4.22 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.22 Ldr
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
100%
GUARDIANS
0%
ASTROS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
HOU By 1-2 runs
10.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
5.4%
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Cleveland
6
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Guardians (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
CLE @ HOU
1 - 2
Jun 20, 2026
CLE @ HOU
8 - 1
Jun 19, 2026
CLE @ HOU
3 - 9
Apr 22, 2026
HOU @ CLE
2 - 0
Apr 21, 2026
HOU @ CLE
5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Cleveland
CLE
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.380
.582
OPS
▲
.696
4
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+3950.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+41.0% more
Cleveland: 1.1
vs
Houston: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+39.7% more
Cleveland: 4.2
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+11.4%
Cleveland: 69.6%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.0
5
CLE Score
6.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.8
11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.1
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 16.6
16.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.7
3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
HOU
CLE
HOU
ML
54%
87-75
50%
81-82
49%
80-83
47%
77-87
ATS
57%
93-69
56%
91-72
58%
95-68
55%
90-74
TTL
56%
89-71-2
45%
70-84-9
44%
70-90-2
45%
69-86-9
Contextual Game News
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Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
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