CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
52-30 | Road
104
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
46-36 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
CAVALIERS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-7 points
18.6%
CLE By 8-14 points
26.8%
TOR By 1-7 points
6.8%
TOR By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
117
CLEVELAND
Toronto
104
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Cleveland
103
CLEVELAND
Toronto
108
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers (+3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u221.5
Loss
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim
u221.5
Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
102 - 114
May 1, 2026
CLE @ TOR
110 - 112
Apr 29, 2026
TOR @ CLE
120 - 125
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
89 - 93
Apr 23, 2026
CLE @ TOR
104 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.4% more
Cleveland: 9.9
vs
Toronto: 7.2
Assists (L5)
+10.0% more
Toronto: 27.7
vs
Cleveland: 25.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
117.0
104
TOR Score
104.0
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 37.7
61.0 / 31.0
Assists
27.7 / 25.2
29.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.8
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
52.9 / 52.1
57.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
75.9 / 74.5
57.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 39.9
35.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.2 / 9.9
11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.8 / 15.7
12.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CLE
TOR
CLE
ML
55%
57-47
60%
69-46
55%
48-39
56%
55-44
ATS
61%
62-40-2
67%
75-37-3
55%
48-39
56%
55-44
TTL
60%
62-42
59%
68-47
100%
87-0
100%
99-0
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