Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ Mets MIN @ NYM

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

11-11  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Apr 21 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

7-15  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Brooks Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Brooks Lee

#22 | Third Base
@
Devin Williams
STARTING PITCHER

Devin Williams

#38 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brooks Lee None-None -- -- -- --
Devin Williams None-None 9.95 -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 9.95
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
📊
METS
0%
TWINS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

40.1%

Mets Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MINNESOTA
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 23, 2026 MIN @ NYM 8 - 10
Apr 22, 2026 MIN @ NYM 2 - 3
Apr 21, 2026 MIN @ NYM 5 - 3
Apr 16, 2025 NYM @ MIN 3 - 4
Apr 15, 2025 NYM @ MIN 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.720 ▲
OPS
.705
187
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +9.1% more
New York: 204.0 vs Minnesota: 187.0
Errors (L5) +70.1% more
Minnesota: 1.4 vs New York: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +30.7% more
Minnesota: 10.0 vs New York: 6.9
Walks (L5) +15.7% more
Minnesota: 3.8 vs New York: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.0 5
NYM Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 8.2 4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 10.0 15.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 12.0 7.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.8 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIN
NYM
MIN
ML
50% 79-80
52% 84-78
48% 76-83
50% 80-81
ATS
58% 93-66
59% 95-67
49% 78-81
59% 95-66
TTL
55% 80-66-13
51% 78-75-9
51% 74-72-13
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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