CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
8-14 | Road
11
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
13-9 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
James McCann
#8 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Burke | None-None | 4.10 | -- | 6.0 | 3 |
| James McCann | None-None | 22.50 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.10 Ldr
ERA
22.50
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
WHITE SOX
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
CHW By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
CHW @ ARI
4 - 1
Apr 22, 2026
CHW @ ARI
7 - 11
Apr 21, 2026
CHW @ ARI
11 - 5
Jun 25, 2025
ARI @ CHW
3 - 7
Jun 24, 2025
ARI @ CHW
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Arizona
ARI
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826
▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16500.0% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+57.2% more
Chicago: 2.5
vs
Arizona: 1.1
Walks (L5)
+53.5% more
Chicago: 5.4
vs
Arizona: 2.5
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
Chicago: 0.5
vs
Arizona: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
5.0
11
ARI Score
6.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 9.3
8.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 2.5
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.0
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 18.9
17.0 / 29.0
Walks
2.5 / 5.4
6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-80-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CHW
ARI
CHW
ML
54%
87-74
48%
81-87
54%
86-74
56%
94-74
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
99-69
56%
89-71
55%
93-75
TTL
52%
80-73-8
58%
97-69-2
49%
73-77-9
51%
85-81-2
Contextual Game News
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White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
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