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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

13-9  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Apr 21 • 6:45 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

9-13  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Caleb Durbin
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Durbin

#5 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Bednar None-None 3.72 -- 1.0 1
Caleb Durbin None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.72 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
0%
📊
RED SOX
100%
YANKEES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

77.3%

Red Sox Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

18.4%

NYY By 3-4 runs

19.6%

BOS By 1-2 runs

10.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6
NEW YORK
3
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Boston BOS
1
Games Played
▲ 2
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
1.041 ▲
OPS
.409
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +88.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +87.6% more
New York: 2.8 vs Boston: 0.3
OPS (Season) +63.2%
New York: 1.0% vs Boston: 40.9%
Slugging Pct (Season) +34.4%
New York: 59.4% vs Boston: 25.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 6.0 4
BOS Score 3.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.7 4.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 2.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 9.6 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 17.7 5.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.6 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYY
BOS
NYY
ML
50% 80-80
47% 76-85
47% 76-87
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-67
59% 95-66
48% 79-84
53% 86-76
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 81-73-7
47% 74-83-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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