Home / MLB Projections MLB / Braves @ Nationals ATL @ WSH

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

16-7  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Apr 21 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

10-13  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Dodd
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Dodd

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Dodd None-None 2.25 -- 1.0 2
Clayton Beeter None-None 3.48 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.25 Ldr ERA 3.48
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
📊
NATIONALS
0%
BRAVES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

40.1%

Nationals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

ATL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ATLANTA
5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATL @ WSH 9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026 ATL @ WSH 5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 WSH @ ATL 3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Washington WSH
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.757 ▲
OPS
.744
1
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20900.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5) +131.0% more
Washington: 1.7 vs Atlanta: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season) +1.4% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Atlanta: 5.0
Batting Avg (Season) +1.3%
Washington: 24.6% vs Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.0 4
WSH Score 5.0 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.7 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 9.2 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.2 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.5 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 14.6 17.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.7 3.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATL
WSH
ATL
ML
57% 92-69
46% 77-90
54% 87-74
54% 90-78
ATS
58% 93-68
57% 96-71
57% 91-70
52% 87-81
TTL
50% 77-78-6
53% 83-73-11
42% 65-90-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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