Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Marlins STL @ MIA

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

13-9  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Apr 21 • 6:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

11-12  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Tyler Phillips None-None 0.60 -- 3.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 0.60
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
MARLINS
100%
CARDINALS --
MARLINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Marlins Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

MIA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
ST. LOUIS
2
MIAMI
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Marlins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 MIA @ STL 1 - 2
Jun 27, 2026 MIA @ STL 5 - 1
Jun 26, 2026 MIA @ STL 4 - 0
Apr 22, 2026 STL @ MIA 1 - 4
Apr 21, 2026 STL @ MIA 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.691
OPS
▲ .727
167
Home Runs
▲ 168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +29.0% more
St. Louis: 0.9 vs Miami: 0.6
Walks (L5) +14.6% more
St. Louis: 4.7 vs Miami: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5) +55.4% more
Miami: 9.8 vs St. Louis: 6.3
OPS (Season) +3.6%
Miami: 72.7% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.0 5
MIA Score 2.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.5 / 7.4 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 6.3 12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 12.0 11.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.0 / 4.7 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
STL
MIA
STL
ML
48% 78-84
53% 85-74
55% 88-72
52% 84-77
ATS
56% 91-71
56% 89-70
54% 86-74
53% 85-76
TTL
56% 88-69-5
46% 68-81-10
53% 82-73-5
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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