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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

15-8  |  Road

12
FINAL
Tue, Apr 21 • 6:40 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

12-10  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Pierce Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Pierce Johnson

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Griffin Jax
STARTING PITCHER

Griffin Jax

#22 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Pierce Johnson None-None 2.61 -- 1.0 2
Griffin Jax None-None 8.00 -- 1.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.61 Ldr ERA 8.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
0%
📊
RAYS
100%
REDS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

69.1%

Rays Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

18.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CINCINNATI
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
CINCINNATI
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 22, 2026 CIN @ TB 1 - 6
Apr 21, 2026 CIN @ TB 12 - 6
Apr 20, 2026 CIN @ TB 6 - 1
Jul 27, 2025 TB @ CIN 1 - 2
Jul 26, 2025 TB @ CIN 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.699
OPS
▲ .728
213 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +43.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.9 vs Tampa Bay: 2.8
Errors (L5) +23.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.6 vs Tampa Bay: 0.3
Home Runs (Season) +20.7% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Total Bases (L5) +9.2% more
Cincinnati: 12.3 vs Tampa Bay: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 5.0 12
TB Score 3.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 7.6 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.6 1.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 6.3 11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 12.3 13.0 / 26.0
Walks 2.8 / 4.9 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CIN
TB
CIN
ML
58% 95-68
55% 88-71
58% 95-68
49% 79-81
ATS
60% 97-66
54% 86-73
55% 90-73
50% 80-80
TTL
47% 73-81-9
53% 81-73-5
51% 78-75-10
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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