PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
42-40 | Road
106
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
SPURS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
POR By 1-7 points
2.7%
POR By 8-14 points
0.5%
SA By 1-7 points
10.7%
SA By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
104
PORTLAND
San Antonio
122
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Portland
109
PORTLAND
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-11)
Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o220.5
Loss
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u220.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 28, 2026
POR @ SA
95 - 114
Apr 26, 2026
SA @ POR
114 - 93
Apr 24, 2026
SA @ POR
120 - 108
Apr 21, 2026
POR @ SA
106 - 103
Apr 19, 2026
POR @ SA
98 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+9.8% more
San Antonio: 46.2
vs
Portland: 42.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
San Antonio: 38.9%
vs
Portland: 32.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
San Antonio: 48.6%
vs
Portland: 44.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
San Antonio: 82.0%
vs
Portland: 78.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
104.0
106
SA Score
122.0
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 32.3
29.0 / 34.0
Assists
27.3 / 26.9
19.0 / 20.0
Blocks
5.2 / 5.2
5.0 / 11.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 44.9
44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
82.0 / 78.4
71.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
46.2 / 42.1
45.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.4 / 9.3
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 13.6
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
POR
SA
POR
ML
60%
111-73
53%
56-49
58%
61-44
55%
49-40
ATS
58%
107-76-1
62%
65-39-1
58%
61-44
55%
49-40
TTL
74%
134-47-3
56%
58-46-1
100%
105-0
100%
89-0
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