Home / NBA Projections NBA / Magic @ Pistons ORL @ DET

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

45-37  |  Road

83
FINAL
Wed, Apr 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

60-22  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
📊
PISTONS
0%
MAGIC --
PISTONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
MagicORL (-3.5) 0 PistonsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Magic Cover

46.0%

Pistons Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

ORL By 1-7 points

24.3%

ORL By 8-14 points

13.7%

DET By 1-7 points

26.2%

DET By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
118
ORLANDO
119
DETROIT
Simulated Score
112
ORLANDO
105
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pistons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Magic Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pistons (+9) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Magic (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o218.5 Loss
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim u218.5 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 ORL @ DET 94 - 116
May 1, 2026 DET @ ORL 93 - 79
Apr 29, 2026 ORL @ DET 109 - 116
Apr 27, 2026 DET @ ORL 88 - 94
Apr 25, 2026 DET @ ORL 105 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.4% more
Detroit: 10.4 vs Orlando: 8.3
Blocks (L5) +13.5% more
Detroit: 6.7 vs Orlando: 5.9
Assists (L5) +10.3% more
Detroit: 28.4 vs Orlando: 25.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
Detroit: 37.6% vs Orlando: 30.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORL Score 118.0 83
DET Score 119.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 30.2 23.0 / 25.0
Assists 28.4 / 25.7 22.0 / 17.0
Blocks 6.7 / 5.9 11.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 47.5 46.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 77.7 / 75.9 58.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 43.6 / 45.8 57.0 / 42.0
Steals 10.4 / 8.3 9.0 / 16.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 14.4 23.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ORL
DET
ORL
ML
55% 64-53
61% 65-42
49% 47-49
56% 51-40
ATS
53% 60-54-3
64% 68-38-1
49% 47-49
56% 51-40
TTL
60% 70-46-1
57% 61-46
100% 96-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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