Home / NHL Projections NHL / Canadiens @ Lightning MTL @ TB

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

48-24-10  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Apr 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

50-26-6  |  Home

3
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
CANADIENS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
CanadiensMTL (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Canadiens Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

MTL By 1 goal

12.1%

MTL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
MONTREAL
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
MONTREAL
2
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Canadiens Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Canadiens (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 MTL @ TB 2 - 1
May 1, 2026 TB @ MTL 1 - 0
Apr 29, 2026 MTL @ TB 3 - 2
Apr 26, 2026 TB @ MTL 3 - 2
Apr 24, 2026 TB @ MTL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +29.2%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Montreal: 2.2%
Takeaways (L5) +15.7% more
Tampa Bay: 5.2 vs Montreal: 4.5
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.8% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Montreal: 29.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +34.0% more
Montreal: 19.6 vs Tampa Bay: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTL Score 2.0 2
TB Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
83%MONEY17%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MTL
TB
MTL
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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