Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Marlins STL @ MIA

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

13-8  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Apr 20 • 6:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

10-12  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Pete Fairbanks
STARTING PITCHER

Pete Fairbanks

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 12.00 -- 1.1 --
Pete Fairbanks None-None 7.88 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
12.00 ERA Ldr 7.88
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
MARLINS
0%
CARDINALS --
MARLINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Marlins Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
ST. LOUIS
6
MIAMI
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marlins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Marlins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 MIA @ STL 1 - 2
Jun 27, 2026 MIA @ STL 5 - 1
Jun 26, 2026 MIA @ STL 4 - 0
Apr 22, 2026 STL @ MIA 1 - 4
Apr 21, 2026 STL @ MIA 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.691
OPS
▲ .727
167
Home Runs
▲ 168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +24.7% more
Miami: 5.0 vs St. Louis: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5) +9.6% more
Miami: 8.1 vs St. Louis: 7.4
OPS (Season) +3.6%
Miami: 72.7% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.2%
Miami: 40.0% vs St. Louis: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 5.0 3
MIA Score 6.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 8.6 6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 7.4 13.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 14.4 11.0 / 7.0
Walks 5.0 / 4.0 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
STL
MIA
STL
ML
48% 78-84
53% 85-74
55% 88-72
52% 84-77
ATS
56% 91-71
56% 89-70
54% 86-74
53% 85-76
TTL
56% 88-69-5
46% 68-81-10
53% 82-73-5
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 2 hours, 14 minutes ago
Cardinals Face Critical Contract Calls on Jordan Walker, Alec Bu…
si 3 days, 2 hours ago
Giants Defy Odds: Harbaugh Applauds Resilience After Dramatic Wi…
sny 4 days, 2 hours ago
Penalties and Turnovers Sink Colorado in 29-7 Loss to No. 12 Tex…
si 4 days, 8 hours ago
Rasmussen's Masterpiece Stifles Yankees as Missed Chance Looms L…
pinstripealley 4 days, 14 hours ago