ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
15-7 | Road
9
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
10-12 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Elder
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | None-None | 1.50 | -- | 6.2 | 6 |
| Jake Irvin | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.50 Ldr
ERA
6.00
--
WHIP
--
6.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
NATIONALS
0%
BRAVES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
ATL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATL @ WSH
9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
ATL @ WSH
5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026
WSH @ ATL
3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Washington
WSH
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.757
▲
OPS
.744
1
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+20900.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+147.0% more
Washington: 1.6
vs
Atlanta: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+9.2% more
Washington: 9.0
vs
Atlanta: 8.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+1.4% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Atlanta: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.0
9
WSH Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.6 / 0.1
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.1 / 9.8
3.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.2
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 15.9
6.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.1
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATL
WSH
ATL
ML
57%
92-69
46%
77-90
54%
87-74
54%
90-78
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
96-71
57%
91-70
52%
87-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
53%
83-73-11
42%
65-90-6
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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