PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
45-37 | Road
107
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
64-18 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
THUNDER
0%
SUNS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
PHX By 1-7 points
8.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
2.2%
OKC By 1-7 points
20.1%
OKC By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
99
PHOENIX
Oklahoma City
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Oklahoma City
123
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+17)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u216.0
Loss
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim
u216.0
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 27, 2026
OKC @ PHX
131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026
OKC @ PHX
121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026
PHX @ OKC
107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026
PHX @ OKC
84 - 119
Apr 12, 2026
PHX @ OKC
135 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+44.6% more
Oklahoma City: 29.0
vs
Phoenix: 20.1
Steals (L5)
+39.6% more
Oklahoma City: 11.1
vs
Phoenix: 7.9
Blocks (L5)
+33.2% more
Oklahoma City: 5.5
vs
Phoenix: 4.1
Rebounding (L5)
+9.0% more
Oklahoma City: 46.3
vs
Phoenix: 42.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
99.0
107
OKC Score
111.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 35.2
35.0 / 35.0
Assists
29.0 / 20.1
24.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.5 / 4.1
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 43.3
47.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
73.2 / 76.6
80.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
46.3 / 42.5
40.0 / 44.0
Steals
11.1 / 7.9
14.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 16.3
10.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
PHX
OKC
PHX
ML
70%
80-34
57%
60-45
48%
46-49
51%
45-43
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
59-43-3
48%
46-49
51%
45-43
TTL
67%
76-38
59%
61-42-2
100%
95-0
100%
88-0
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