PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
45-37 | Road
111
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
56-26 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
100%
CELTICS
0%
76ERS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
PHI By 1-7 points
1.4%
PHI By 8-14 points
0.2%
BOS By 1-7 points
6.8%
BOS By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
106
PHILADELPHIA
Boston
127
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
108
PHILADELPHIA
Boston
112
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (-14.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o217.0
Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim
u217.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 2, 2026
PHI @ BOS
109 - 100
Apr 30, 2026
BOS @ PHI
93 - 106
Apr 28, 2026
PHI @ BOS
113 - 97
Apr 26, 2026
BOS @ PHI
128 - 96
Apr 24, 2026
BOS @ PHI
108 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+36.7% more
Boston: 28.1
vs
Philadelphia: 20.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.6%
Boston: 39.0%
vs
Philadelphia: 27.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.3%
Boston: 83.3%
vs
Philadelphia: 78.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Boston: 48.3%
vs
Philadelphia: 43.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
106.0
111
BOS Score
127.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.0 / 27.4
26.0 / 49.0
Assists
28.1 / 20.6
24.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.9
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 43.6
39.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
83.3 / 78.0
78.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
44.3 / 43.5
50.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.6 / 7.6
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 13.3
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
PHI
BOS
PHI
ML
57%
61-46
63%
69-40
53%
47-41
48%
45-48
ATS
59%
61-43-3
65%
71-38
53%
47-41
48%
45-48
TTL
56%
60-47
55%
60-49
100%
88-0
100%
93-0
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