Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Cubs NYM @ CHC

NEW YORK

METSNYM

7-14  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Apr 19 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

11-9  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Devin Williams
STARTING PITCHER

Devin Williams

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Webb

#71 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Devin Williams None-None 7.11 -- 1.0 3
Jacob Webb None-None 5.00 -- 1.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
7.11 ERA Ldr 5.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
📊
CUBS
0%
METS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

40.1%

Cubs Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

NYM By 1-2 runs

16.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
NEW YORK
5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 CHC @ NYM 4 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 CHC @ NYM 10 - 3
Jun 23, 2026 CHC @ NYM 9 - 6
Apr 19, 2026 NYM @ CHC 1 - 2
Apr 18, 2026 NYM @ CHC 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.705 ▲
OPS
.374
204 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +138.0% more
Chicago: 1.9 vs New York: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +60.9% more
Chicago: 17.6 vs New York: 10.9
Hits (L5) +34.8% more
Chicago: 10.4 vs New York: 7.7
Strikeouts (L5) +26.2% more
Chicago: 8.0 vs New York: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.0 1
CHC Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.4 / 7.7 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 6.4 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.6 / 10.9 10.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.3 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
NYM
CHC
NYM
ML
58% 93-68
50% 79-80
51% 82-79
48% 76-83
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-66
47% 75-85-1
49% 78-81
TTL
52% 81-74-6
55% 80-66-13
46% 72-83-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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