ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
46-36 | Road
107
NEW YORK
KNICKSNY
53-29 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
KNICKS
0%
HAWKS
--
KNICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NY -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)
ATL By 1-7 points
3.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
0.6%
NY By 1-7 points
12.2%
NY By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
104
ATLANTA
New York
121
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Atlanta
107
ATLANTA
New York
112
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Knicks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Knicks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Knicks (-6)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Knicks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o217.5
Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u217.5
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
NY @ ATL
140 - 89
Apr 28, 2026
ATL @ NY
97 - 126
Apr 25, 2026
NY @ ATL
114 - 98
Apr 23, 2026
NY @ ATL
108 - 109
Apr 20, 2026
ATL @ NY
107 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.6% more
New York: 8.6
vs
Atlanta: 6.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.7%
New York: 77.1%
vs
Atlanta: 68.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
New York: 49.0%
vs
Atlanta: 46.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+16.7% more
Atlanta: 13.7
vs
New York: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
104.0
107
NY Score
121.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 38.3
32.0 / 30.0
Assists
25.0 / 26.9
22.0 / 22.0
Blocks
3.2 / 3.7
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 46.4
45.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
77.1 / 68.4
63.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
41.4 / 43.6
47.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.6 / 6.7
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 13.7
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
NY
Advantage
70-32-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
NY
Advantage
58-44-0
(56.9%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
ATL
NY
ATL
ML
61%
114-72
50%
52-52
56%
57-45
55%
48-40
ATS
67%
124-62
53%
55-48-1
56%
57-45
55%
48-40
TTL
72%
133-53
53%
55-48-1
100%
102-0
100%
88-0
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