Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Angels SD @ LAA

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

14-7  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Apr 19 • 4:07 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

11-11  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Miller None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
Sam Bachman None-None 2.92 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 2.92
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
📊
ANGELS
0%
PADRES --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

40.1%

Angels Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

SD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 19, 2026 SD @ LAA 2 - 1
Apr 18, 2026 SD @ LAA 4 - 1
Apr 17, 2026 SD @ LAA 0 - 8
May 14, 2025 LAA @ SD 1 - 5
May 13, 2025 LAA @ SD 4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.925 ▲
OPS
.679
4
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +3750.0% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +132.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.7 vs San Diego: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +43.2% more
Los Angeles: 15.6 vs San Diego: 10.9
Walks (L5) +27.3% more
Los Angeles: 4.5 vs San Diego: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.0 2
LAA Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 8.0 2.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.9 / 10.1 11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 10.9 3.0 / 6.0
Walks 4.5 / 3.5 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
SD
LAA
SD
ML
59% 96-66
51% 85-83
55% 89-73
51% 85-82
ATS
60% 97-65
54% 91-77
51% 82-80
55% 92-75
TTL
53% 83-74-5
51% 82-80-6
52% 82-75-5
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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