CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
13-8 | Road
7
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
11-10 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Morris
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 4.76 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Andrew Morris | None-None | 8.31 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.76 Ldr
ERA
8.31
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
0%
TWINS
100%
REDS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 19, 2026
CIN @ MIN
7 - 4
Apr 18, 2026
CIN @ MIN
5 - 4
Apr 17, 2026
CIN @ MIN
2 - 1
Jun 19, 2025
MIN @ CIN
12 - 5
Jun 18, 2025
MIN @ CIN
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.699
OPS
▲
.720
213
▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+47.8% more
Cincinnati: 4.3
vs
Minnesota: 2.3
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.7
vs
Minnesota: 0.6
Home Runs (Season)
+12.2% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Minnesota: 187.0
Home Runs (L5)
+42.0% more
Minnesota: 1.1
vs
Cincinnati: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
6.0
7
MIN Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.7
3.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.7 / 6.8
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 7.9
14.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 10.0
11.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.3 / 4.3
7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CIN
MIN
CIN
ML
52%
84-78
55%
88-71
50%
80-81
49%
79-81
ATS
59%
95-67
54%
86-73
59%
95-66
50%
80-80
TTL
51%
78-75-9
53%
81-73-5
53%
80-72-9
54%
83-72-5
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